Before a team even walks on a field the nation has the national champion chosen, all Americans picked and everything else figured out. I normally can concur with preseason predictions but have to call shenanigans this year on anything within the ACC (OK maybe not VT being the champ, they look pretty solid and have motivation on their side). From players and coaches leaving to entire coaching staff overhauls, the ACC is anything BUT consistent from the previous year. I can understand how a team that could be returning it’s entire Junior and all of it’s coaches would be considered for consistencies sake to perform well but this is the ACC.
Currently FSU has a 3 point spread over Clemson. Normally, to my understanding, the home team gets 3 points for home field advantage. That means that FSU is actually a 6 point favorite over the Tigers. This being the first game of the season, how can someone go about getting this spread.
So here is what we have:
Clemson loses: Anthony Waters, Gaines Adams, Dwayne Coleman, C.J. Gaddis, Will Proctor, Chansi Stuckey, Thomas Hunter, Cole Chason, Jad Dean and 3 of 4 starting Offensive Linemen.
FSU loses: 2 starting LB’s, their leading rusher and leading receiver.
On paper, Clemson lost huge over the summer in terms of position turnover but looking at the losses you can find the following:
Anthony Waters was never on the field last season, Coleman and Gaddis were fighting for their position all season long with the youth that is now in their shoes, Proctor lost all form after the passing game was exposed, Thomas Hunter created the TE spot on Clemson and talent will fill that hole, Stuckey was one man and Clemson always finds the replacement and this time they have multiple options and Chason and Dean were pretty much head cases the last season. The overall glaring losses were Gaines Adams and the O-line. Now Gaines was a monster and it’s always fun to say that there will never be another so and so, but at Bandit end this year Clemson has developed a pretty good crew with speedy Ricky Sapp and Kevin Alexander. The O-line will be missed, especially with all the talent that is on the field that depends on success in those positions. The coaching staff and the players seem to think that the line has developed and gelled rather well and is now holding up to the Tiger Defense but I am still concerned. The QB situation, well let’s say it couldn’t get worse. What irks the Clemson faithful is that if Harper is so good why was he not in when Proctor was so bad? I find it hard to believe that in 9 months time Harper has become the phenom that is beating out a 5 star recruit when he couldn’t beat out a guy who couldn’t even throw the ball 20 yards the year before. I do believe that the coaches made the decisions to keep Proctor in the game down the stretch and the Harper is as good as they say from the performance and reports that we have seen. And if Harper doesn’t do the job, it sounds like the coaching staff is ready to yank him and put Korn or someone who can do the job in. Of course, 50% of the QB success comes back on the O-line and how well they can give the guy time to make the plays. The kicking game is a concern but not with the guys who are kicking the ball but the rest of the guys on the field. This seems to have been remedied with the obtainment of a coach who has special teams concentrations so Clemson can return the ball with the speed, they just need to tackle sooner on the other side.
FSU doesn’t seem to lose alot but if you have kept up with their team over the past two years you come to realize that they have had the same 2 QB’s fighting for the starting position every year. Weatherford and Lee are either that damn good or that damn bad. From what I remember seeing, Lee is a great scrambler but his accuracy is off. And from reports over the summer, Weatherford has already thrown 3 picks, to his own team, who he practices with daily. Harper and Korn have comibined for a whopping 1 INT the entire spring AND summer drills. Now once again, either Weatherford is that bad or the ‘noles defense is that damn good. Oh, and throw in that the ‘noles have completely revamped their coaching staff, playbooks and all. But they have Chuck the Chest now!!!
So what exactly is the basis for the spread determinations? I know FSU has a great defense, less the all American and other LB and they obviously have seasoned QB’s as well as that running back that is a better back than their leading rusher and the wide reciever corps is not lacking (/sarcasm) but still what is the cement that holds the spread basis together. It all comes down to what I believe is the only facts that the media has to lean on, that being last season. Clemson was a one dimensional team last season and that is what they will be walking into Death Valley next week as they did not lose Davis or Spiller. FSU was a passing team last year and they lost their leading receiver and rusher but still have the guy who gets those players the ball. So it comes down to the fact that Clemson is still ‘06 Clemson and until they can prove it otherwise they will remain that way in peoples minds. So if the media is solidly basing their opinion that the stacked defense will work against the Tigers and if the Tigers have definitely developed and will apply a more spread out offense, then what becomes of the spread?
Oh yeah, and a 3 point “factor” for a night game in Death Valley? I sure as hell hope not!! Of course, if they did give The Valley more credit, we may have more on our hands than originally thought.