These just don’t even pass the sniff test. Various online “sources” of dubious quality and reputation are reporting that Clemson’s basketball team is not only ranked, but undefeated at 17-0 (3-0) after beating NC State in Raleigh 87-76.

The only reason why I might believe this is true is that Clemson reportedly shot only 5-13 (38%) from the freebie line.

Next up another road trip, this time to Maryland on Saturday. Game time is set for 2:00. The Terps are 14-2 (0-1) and appear in the top 25 of the ESPN/USA Today poll, Sportsline RPI*, and Sagarin ratings.

* The official NCAA RPI will start to be published sometime next week (or so I’ve read).

The latest Shoeless film is available for download.

And now for some random thoughts:

• Shoeless films are becoming too much like ESPN: fluff and filler when what I want most are scores and highlights. If he starts including spelling bees he will meet an untimely demise.
• Early every week I wish I could watch a replay of the previous weekend’s Clemson game. I can never watch it because I have always stupidly forgotten to tape it. Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life. In the future I’ll opt for just fat and drunk.
• I did not see the offsides that was flagged against Clemson on the goal line stand. If someone was lined up offsides, then there should have been dozens more flags for this throughout the game.
• You know you’re a “special” referee when everyone knows your name. FireRonCherry.com is available. Anyone? Anyone?
• Shoeless redeems himself with A Tribute to Geometry & Physics Extraordinaire: Ron Cherry
• Hopefully James Davis is back up to full speed by the 25th.

I’ll try to keep this short.

NC State is 3-6 for a reason. That reason is that they aren’t very good at playing a full game of football. They are inconsistent, unpredictable, prone to throwing picks, and capable of scoring once they’ve lulled everyone to sleep. They may play dead for 45 minutes, but they never actually roll over and die.

At least not yet.

I don’t know what the magic recipe for beating them is, but getting them at home at noon looks to be an advantage. Striking early and often will destroy their tempo and they’ll abandon the run. They’ll complete some passes and move the ball, but they’ll have problems with sustaining drives.

State is capable of scoring 35 points — not that they have done it, but they could. Expect for them to find 20 points to put on the board. Therefore Clemson needs to find a way to put 21 on the board in the first half. Then protect the ball in the 2nd half. NC State won’t give up, but they won’t be able to come back unless you give them opportunities.

If State is capable of scoring 35, then Clemson is capable of 50. Easily. We have seen that. The spread is 17. I think Clemson wins the game, but State beats the spread: final score 34-21.

I’ll be taking NC State +17 please.

Thank you.

With all the regular season travels completed for the Tigers, everyone is glad that the team can stay home and play only in Death Valley. But just how important is playing at home? I decided to look into the numbers to see.

To keep things relevant, I looked at only the statistics since Tommy Bowden became coach

starting in the ’99 season. Since that time his teams have gone 36-12 at home, 19-20 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites during the regular season. That leaves the bowls as neutral site games, in which Bowden is 3-3. Road trips are clearly a 50-50 proposition.

For simplicity, I’ll leave out neutral site games.

In percentage form, the home winning percentage is 75, with the road being 48.7. So the chances of winning by playing at home are improved by about 54%.

However, with two important league games looming, I went ahead and took only league games into consideration. Here, Bowden is 20-10 at home, and 16-16 on the road. Compare that 66.7% home winning percentage to the 50% road winning percentage, and the team is only about 33% more likely to win any given league game at home.

There is some bad news to be added to this year’s 4-0 start at home. So far under Tommy Bowden, we’ve never had an undefeated home season. And through 7 full seasons, there have been only three 1 loss seasons. However if we consider only home conference games, there is a lone season where the team did not drop a conference game at home. That year was 2003.

So how does Clemson compare to other ACC teams under their current head coaches? Read on…
Read the rest of this entry »

We’re 7 games into the season.  We’re 6-1 and already bowl eligible.  Now we have 5 games left to determine if this season will have 13 or 14 games and which bowl we’ll go to.   Is this a championship season?  That remains to be determined but the potential is there.  And the the biggest remaining question mark looms in the form of Georgia Tech this weekend.  Although the next 4 games are all equal important to the overall ACC Championship Game question.

Georgia Tech:

Stat junky gnome, Clem, has already covered this one.  I’ve pored over the numbers myself.  I’ll even add that Sagarin’s computer rankings put Clemson at #10 and Georgia Tech at #35.

If this is to be a championship season, the team has to overcome all those short term negative trends that commentators and pundits love to spew to sell TV coverage.  This means beating Florida State in Tallahassee.  This means getting the Winston-Salem monkey off our backs.  Moreover it means beating Georgia Tech soundly: none of this 3 point-or-less bullshit.

Statistics and rankings aside, this is Clemson’s game to win.  To our advantage, I think our running game will prevail, Koenning will have a good defensive plan, and don’t forget about the homefield.  Georgia Tech has played only one road game this year.  If Clemson takes care of the ball, they should win by at least 12.  Altough I personally think the actual margin of victory will be closer to 8.

Read the rest of this entry »

Iowa has lost in a close game to Indiana.

NC State has lost to Wake Forest in another close game.

As Iowa and Michigan was the only other game next week that could have topped the Clemson Georgia Tech game for Gameday it seems that the result of the Iowa Indiana game made the decision even clearer. As NC State has lost that puts them in the 1 loss column with the division and places Clemson on top with 3 wins in conference. That means that Clemson and Georgia Tech are both leading their divisions. Top 15 divisional leaders squaring off on ESPN, one with the highest rushing offense and the other with one of the greatest receivers in the nation, what else would Gameday want!! Now all we have to do is sit and wait for the confirmation. Clemson boards are going nuts with the potential of Gameday in Clemson. Just add that as one more factor in what is well becoming one heck of a highly anticipated and nationally focused game.

The remaining ACC schedule is about 50% resolved on paper. The following results are this gnomes view on how the games should play out to favor the Tigers chances at the ACCCG and rankings.

Duke v FSU
Since the ‘Noles have dug themselves a hole I will be rooting for them so that our win over them and our division come out looking better. I say that as if there is a chance that the ‘Noles could lose but ya never know, the Tigers lost to the Dukies on their home field once!

Maryland v Virginia
Once again another team that the Tigers will play versus one that they won’t see in the season. And again, the way Virginia has been playing this year, I don’t think that there really is any question that the Terps won’t run away with it. After a close loss to the Jackets, the Terps should be looking to keep their season in tact with a win in UVA. Of course the loss could be demoralizing and have the Terps in a slump. A loss for the Terps would separate them from the top of the division with 2 losses in conference, but I don’t see that happening so if anything as win would strengthen Clemson’s schedule when they play the Terps in the Valley later in the season.

Miami v Fla Intl
Seriously, let’s just get to the remaining good ACC game. There hasn’t been a game besides VT and BC this week that isn’t already decided on paper. Miami needs to get some good press and needs to light up FAI. No Coker hotseat heat here for once.

UNC v South Fla
I would say that this game is an ACC lock but UNC is on a downhill slide this year and USF usually has a good team rolling for them. From my developing stats page USF has #54 overall offense and #28 overall defense. This could be Buntings farewell song and could be a good bottom dweller game to watch a small school get some props by playing and possibly defeating an ACC team.

NC State v Wake Forest
This is the ACC game, besides VT/BC, that Clemson fans will have their eyes on this weekend. After the undefeated streak ending, 4th quarter meltdown against the Tigers, the Deacs head to Raleigh, the giant killing field, to face a hot Wolfpack team. NC State may be on a high after knocking BC and FSU down a notch over the previous weeks and may not see Wake as that much of a threat. I look for Wake to keep their smoke and mirror offense alive and take the pack down for their first ACC loss thus propelling them to the 1 loss familiarity that is the Atlantic division.