With all the regular season travels completed for the Tigers, everyone is glad that the team can stay home and play only in Death Valley. But just how important is playing at home? I decided to look into the numbers to see.

To keep things relevant, I looked at only the statistics since Tommy Bowden became coach

starting in the ‘99 season. Since that time his teams have gone 36-12 at home, 19-20 on the road, and 1-0 at neutral sites during the regular season. That leaves the bowls as neutral site games, in which Bowden is 3-3. Road trips are clearly a 50-50 proposition.

For simplicity, I’ll leave out neutral site games.

In percentage form, the home winning percentage is 75, with the road being 48.7. So the chances of winning by playing at home are improved by about 54%.

However, with two important league games looming, I went ahead and took only league games into consideration. Here, Bowden is 20-10 at home, and 16-16 on the road. Compare that 66.7% home winning percentage to the 50% road winning percentage, and the team is only about 33% more likely to win any given league game at home.

There is some bad news to be added to this year’s 4-0 start at home. So far under Tommy Bowden, we’ve never had an undefeated home season. And through 7 full seasons, there have been only three 1 loss seasons. However if we consider only home conference games, there is a lone season where the team did not drop a conference game at home. That year was 2003.

So how does Clemson compare to other ACC teams under their current head coaches? Read on…
Read the rest of this entry »

The remaining ACC schedule is about 50% resolved on paper. The following results are this gnomes view on how the games should play out to favor the Tigers chances at the ACCCG and rankings.

Duke v FSU
Since the ‘Noles have dug themselves a hole I will be rooting for them so that our win over them and our division come out looking better. I say that as if there is a chance that the ‘Noles could lose but ya never know, the Tigers lost to the Dukies on their home field once!

Maryland v Virginia
Once again another team that the Tigers will play versus one that they won’t see in the season. And again, the way Virginia has been playing this year, I don’t think that there really is any question that the Terps won’t run away with it. After a close loss to the Jackets, the Terps should be looking to keep their season in tact with a win in UVA. Of course the loss could be demoralizing and have the Terps in a slump. A loss for the Terps would separate them from the top of the division with 2 losses in conference, but I don’t see that happening so if anything as win would strengthen Clemson’s schedule when they play the Terps in the Valley later in the season.

Miami v Fla Intl
Seriously, let’s just get to the remaining good ACC game. There hasn’t been a game besides VT and BC this week that isn’t already decided on paper. Miami needs to get some good press and needs to light up FAI. No Coker hotseat heat here for once.

UNC v South Fla
I would say that this game is an ACC lock but UNC is on a downhill slide this year and USF usually has a good team rolling for them. From my developing stats page USF has #54 overall offense and #28 overall defense. This could be Buntings farewell song and could be a good bottom dweller game to watch a small school get some props by playing and possibly defeating an ACC team.

NC State v Wake Forest
This is the ACC game, besides VT/BC, that Clemson fans will have their eyes on this weekend. After the undefeated streak ending, 4th quarter meltdown against the Tigers, the Deacs head to Raleigh, the giant killing field, to face a hot Wolfpack team. NC State may be on a high after knocking BC and FSU down a notch over the previous weeks and may not see Wake as that much of a threat. I look for Wake to keep their smoke and mirror offense alive and take the pack down for their first ACC loss thus propelling them to the 1 loss familiarity that is the Atlantic division.

OK kids, I finally got time to write some thoughts down on the UNC massacre. Here are some notes:

- First off, punch your friendly weatherman in the mouth for his bass ackwards forecast of 30% rain in the afternoon. The rain came in at 5AM and was done by 8AM. The game was uber hot and I am pretty sure I was dehydrated, or at least that is what my first responder training told me when you stop sweating.

- Thomas Hunter is a beast and finally got the breakout plays that I have been waiting for from the pre-season-prophesized Tight End play. For all those TE’s looking to commit to Clemson, Thomas Hunter’s play will be essential through the rest of the season. When he caught the big pass down the middle and rumbled through for a few more yards I was screaming my brains out for the big guy. I just wish that a secondary player had got in his way so that he could have gone through him like a tank through a brick wall.

- Running Backs galore. James ran all first half and sat back the second. Reggie ran through the second and twisted his ankle. CJ ran for two TD’s and kept running. Demerick got in the second half and took over. I have been a fan of Demerick and the RB’s as a whole as they seem to be a team of their own. When one scores, they ALL congratulate him with high fives and jumping chest bumps. Seeing Demerick succeed just shows the extensive depth that we have. Reggie may be leaving but the depth has no evidence of hurting next year. Once again, for those kids who are looking at Clemson at the RB position, using multiple backs in every game gives them hope at the depth chart.

- Speaking of backfield, Alex Pearson is a blocking FREAK! He and Thomas Hunter are awesome support men for the plethora of running backs. As shown in the final play of the FSU game when Hunter jacked the line and Pearson followed him in forcing the hole for James to get in, these guys have the drive and heart to get the team where they need to be. Pearson is one of those guys that doesn’t get reconized but his efforts always are part of the scoreboard. Keep an eye out for this kid.

- Offensive line, well nothing much to say there other than these guys eat nails for breakfast and probably foam at the mouth on the line. I read one article that said that Nathan Bennet tells Proctor every game that he has his back. I see these guys like rabid dogs that the defensive line hates to line up against and probably wets their pants when they see the stats that the line is putting together. Once again, an under appreciated group of guys, but this year they ARE getting alot of press. The 2s and 3s are also getting their reps in so we should be good next year when most of the line graduates.

- Defense in general is just scary. Imagine what would have been if they were 100% in manning. Good Lord! Would anyone stand a chance. We are into the 2s and they are playing like first stringers. Seriously young talent on the field and Koenning is cycling through them like crazy so experience is spread as well. Chris Clemmons and Dwayne Coleman are serious players and hit with all they’ve got. LB’s patrol as the D-Line does their job straight up. With Merling and Adams destroying lines the LB’s pick off prey with ease. Lots of BOOOM on the field when this D is on.

- The crowd knows it, the team knows it and thanks to UNC, FSU and NCStates win over BC the rest of the ACC knows it: Clemson is a serious threat this year, they got their jitters out in the close game at BC and now they are glaring at the rest of the conference. LaTech should be another FAU/UNC game and then Wake, who by the way will probably be a 5-0 undefeated Atlantic Conference leader, will feel the pain as the high hoped Orange faithful (including Broken and myself) travel to flood the away stadium to exact revenge. Death Valley was sold out for UNC and the 81 reunion, GT is sold out, I look for the rest of the home games to be sold out as well. Secure your tickets now cause it’s about to be a fun ride.

GO TIGERS!!!

After Saturday’s victory over the Heels, we haven’t really said much about the game. What stands out the most to me, is that I was able to go through the entire game without being nervous. There was no heart attack special. Cardiologists all over the Southeast have extra time for golf this week.

Clemson systematically ran its offense while systematically keeping North Carolina from moving the ball anywhere but backwards. We’ve had many big wins in the last 8 years, but I cannot remember a single more thorough dismantling of a football team by another. That last line says enough about the game to keep me from having to be specific in any way.

If the coaches and team find a way to continue to play at that level for the next 8 games, a trip to Jacksonville is definitely in the cards.

Courtesy of ESPN.com. I’m in Missouri but this is what I came back to the room to find. I’m sure Agent will have plenty of details.

Stats:

Teams
1st Downs	8	30
Total Yards	150	504
Passing	96	180
Rushing	54	324
Penalties	9-65	5-40
3rd Down Conversions	1-10	6-12
4th Down Conversions	1-2	1-2
Turnovers	2	1
Possession	21:43	38:17

(Appologies for the crumby table, I’m not enjoying our change over just yet. I’m gnome on a short bus for a reason.)

Davis - 4 TD’s and 96 yrds. Team tallied 7 on the ground overall with the wealth being spread to Spiller (2) and Merriweather (1).

2nd string in most if not all of the second half.

Oh, and supposedly AC/DC was back on the speakers. I’m guessing it was pretty much over before it started if that’s the case.

I never pay attention to anything other than the spreads when it comes to betting on college football.  Except this week.

For the first time, I ran across covers.com.  There’s a lot of information to drive you crazy, or maybe convince you which way to bet.

For example:

• Tar Heels are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
• Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Pick your poison.  The current Clemson-UNC spreads have Clemson favored by 16 to 17.

Personally, I think we both should and are capable of winning by 20.  However, I’m predicting a final score of 34-20.

Time to check the Ego at the door Tigers. You got your big win, now don’t go an screw up and continue the tradition of following it up with a loss to an opponent that you have a rather large spread on.

As Tommy is saying this week: “Remember Duke“

We’re now three games into the season and we are not totally devastated. The FAU game went as planned. The trip to Boston was heartbreaking. But Saturday’s triumph over Florida State provides solid footing for optimism. Of course extrapolation is a dangerous tool, especially as you move further away from your source data. Projecting 4 games into the future based on 3 games in the past falls in the ‘danger’ category. However, I just can’t help myself. Right now the glass is half 2/3rds full.

If there is a time for a letdown game, this is the time for it. Everyone remembers the Miami/Duke win/loss combo of 2004. There is no reason, however, why the FSU/UNC win/loss combo of 2006 should come into play. And let’s face it, the next 4 games are nothing compared to the last two. There’s no good reason why we shouldn’t be 6-1 when Georgia Tech comes to town. Why do I say that? There are four reasons: UNC, Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, and Temple.

Certainly there is reason for concern. I won’t get into that here. Instead, this is just a brief reminder that these 4 teams just aren’t that good — or at least that’s how it looks right now.

UNC has played three home games, dropping two of them to Rutgers and Virginia Tech, and almost dropping the third to DI-AA Furman. Maybe their strength is playing on the road? Their offense isn’t statistically bad, but their rushing defense appears to be suspect.

La. Tech has only played two games: first getting killed by Nebraska then winning by 10 over DI-AA Nicholls State (who did only marginally worse against Nebraska). Like UNC, they have mediocre offensive stats, but their rushing defense is even worse, ranked at 106th nationally. They may be able to play A&M close next week, but that’s only because it is almost impossible to have confidence in Coach Fran’s team. Either way, they played patsy to Nebraska, then had to come from behind against patsy Nicholl’s State.

Wake Forest has stumbled along to a 3-0 start. Their rush defense may be good, but their offense lacks firepower. The near-loss to Duke has me questioning the team. What’s worse, is that their next two games look completely winnable as well. Despite the fawning man-love by the media for Ole Miss head coach Ed Orgeron, his team just doesn’t look good — they even got beat by Kentucky! After them, the Deacs face off against DI-AA Liberty. Wake is likely the toughest game on Liberty’s schedule this year. Still it is hard to gauge Wake since they don’t really play anyone.

Then there’s Temple. The Owls are averaging a DI-A worst 1 point per game. They’re also giving up more than 44 points per game, with each of the last two teams putting up 62.

We should win all these games by at least 20 points.
If we want to be considered among the best in the nation, we need to dominate the next four games.

The Hokies beat UNC in Chapel Hill by 25. La. Tech fell by 39 to Nebraska. Wake Forest almost lost to Duke who put up goose eggs against Richmond and Virginia Tech. Temple is just sad.

The early line against UNC has us favored by 16. Furman put up 42 against them. La. Tech and Temple have cupcake written all over them. And Wake? Well it’s time for us to smack the smirk off their faces.

Individually, none of the games looms very large. Collectively, they are 1/3 of our season and every bit as important as the games against Techs or South Carolina. This is the part of the season where we get to stretch our legs. And we’d better damn well do it.