We beat Georgia Tech on Saturday night. I’ve spent about 5 days savoring the trouncing of the jackets as if it has been some kind of bizarro hangover. It’s been fun, but holy cow it’s gameday again. How did that happen? Well the greatest schedule ever is rearing its ugly head again and now Virginia Tech is that head.

In general, I have a spot in my heart for Virginia Tech. It’s the hard-working, underappreciated little brother to an older and more pompous state university. You have to like Tech if for no other reason than it is the anti-UVA. But those warm feelings quickly disappear when I think about VT, Clemson, and football. I have nothing but bad memories when it comes to the Hokies. Tonight though, we have a good chance to exact some well earned revenge.

Virginia Tech comes into the game with decent looking defensive numbers.   They’re also 5-2, so obviously they’re doing something moderately correct.  But Clemson has already faced a lot of teams with good-looking defensive numbers and proceeded to show a complete lack of respect for national statistical rankings.  Moreover, having watched a lot of their games, they have seemed to lack a spark all year.  That was particularly evident when they were bested by Georgia Tech and a week later by the Eagles of BC.

Basically I’m left wondering if the Hokies can get points on the board.  They haven’t been the special teams juggernaut for which they derive much of their respect.  And their offensive numbers don’t pop off the board.  Quarterback Sean Glennon is servicable but not great.  And running back Brandon Ore has the ability to put up big yards, but those performances are spread out.

In short, I don’t see any reason why Clemson shouldn’t beat Virginia Tech tonight.  Rob Spence puts together great game plans from week-to-week.  As does Vic Koenning, which leaves execution as the key element.  Against wake we saw what can happen when the team is pressured into making mistakes.  As long as we can keep Virginia Tech with a long field, and don’t give them points on turnovers or special teams, they shouldn’t be able to score more than 17.  Davis, Spiller, and Merriweather will be ready to run.  Stuckey will rejoin Ford, Grisham and Kelly to catch.  If Proctor stays sharp we’re in good shape.

My forecast says we should win by an easy 20.  But I’ll predict the final score of 20-17, with Tech getting 7 off gimmes.

From today’s press conference, via Scout.com:

Do you think the cold weather affect James [Davis's] shoulder?
Bowden: I don’t know. You know you get on the sideline and you see the television cameras are there and the sideline. Is Erin Andrews working the sideline? Then he’ll probably play.

Bowden says it will be a gameday decision on whether Davis will play or not. And I can’t tell from his quotes if Davis’s shoulder is 50%, or if there’s a 50-50 chance of him playing.

Thomas Hunter is going for an MRI on his shoulder, but Davis isn’t having one for his. Reggie Merriweather is definitely back at 100% if Davis can’t play. Stuckey is near 100%.

The early line from Vegas for the Clemson-VT game has the Tigers favored by 3 1/2.

The Hokies, however, are usually not an underdog.

Talk about a rarity. Thursday’s ESPN national-televised game marks only the third time since 1995 that the Hokies have been an underdog at home. The last was Nov. 1, 2003, when No. 2 Miami strolled into Lane as a 31/2-point favorite and was crushed 31-7 by No. 10 Tech. In 2001, a No. 1-ranked Miami club that went on to capture the national title came to Blacksburg as a 14-point chalk and survived a 26-24 scare from No. 14 Tech.
The last time Tech was an underdog anywhere was Dec. 4, 2004, when the 10th-ranked Hokies beat No. 9 Miami 16-10 in the Orange Bowl, giving the Hokies the ACC title in their first season in the league.

I’m personally surprised the line is so narrow.  Based on the play of both teams, I would figure that Clemson would get a lot more credit.  I guess Tech is making up a lot of ground by getting the game at home.

We’re 7 games into the season.  We’re 6-1 and already bowl eligible.  Now we have 5 games left to determine if this season will have 13 or 14 games and which bowl we’ll go to.   Is this a championship season?  That remains to be determined but the potential is there.  And the the biggest remaining question mark looms in the form of Georgia Tech this weekend.  Although the next 4 games are all equal important to the overall ACC Championship Game question.

Georgia Tech:

Stat junky gnome, Clem, has already covered this one.  I’ve pored over the numbers myself.  I’ll even add that Sagarin’s computer rankings put Clemson at #10 and Georgia Tech at #35.

If this is to be a championship season, the team has to overcome all those short term negative trends that commentators and pundits love to spew to sell TV coverage.  This means beating Florida State in Tallahassee.  This means getting the Winston-Salem monkey off our backs.  Moreover it means beating Georgia Tech soundly: none of this 3 point-or-less bullshit.

Statistics and rankings aside, this is Clemson’s game to win.  To our advantage, I think our running game will prevail, Koenning will have a good defensive plan, and don’t forget about the homefield.  Georgia Tech has played only one road game this year.  If Clemson takes care of the ball, they should win by at least 12.  Altough I personally think the actual margin of victory will be closer to 8.

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Yesterday I re-iterated that Clemson should beat hapless Temple by 40, even though I expected a closer game.  Well I was eating the words of my prediciton by the end of the first half.  But the events of last night have added to my clarity of the quality of our future opponents.

On to Georgia Tech:

It’s homecoming.  Gameday will be there.  Both teams will be in the top-15.  I honestly have no idea what to expect.  Both teams have strong rushing offenses and strong rushing defenses.  Statistically Clemson is a little stronger in most categories.  But GT took it to Virginia Tech on special teams (before almost getting it taken to them by Maryland) and that has been a bit of a weakness this season.  Throw in a couple of the injuries the Tigers have endured and I’m just not sure what to think.  I’ll re-evaluate this game in a week, but the Tigers should win by 10.

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Two weeks ago I looked ahead to Clemson’s 4 upcoming opponents. At the time they were UNC, La Tech, Wake, and Temple. It seemed clear (and still seems) that Clemson should win all these games by 20 points or more.

UNC - check

La Tech - check

Wake, Temple - TBD

Although I didn’t post it, I meant to update the margins after the victory at UNC. To be more specific, I’d say a 30 point margin against La Tech would be reasonable while 20 and 40 points against Wake Forest and Temple, respectively, seem like reasonable bets.  The early line on the Clemson-Wake matchup is Clemson -15.

Let me just say that if we don’t make it past Wake, I’ll be on suicide watch and the rest of the season won’t matter.  But if, we get past Wake and then Temple (and that one’s not even in doubt, is it?) then we face Georgia Tech as our Homecoming opponent and Virginia Tech just 5 days later in Blacksburg.

Suddenly Georgia Tech looms much larger and Virginia Tech still looms large but a bit diminished. Read the rest of this entry »