The remaining ACC schedule is about 50% resolved on paper. The following results are this gnomes view on how the games should play out to favor the Tigers chances at the ACCCG and rankings.

Duke v FSU
Since the ‘Noles have dug themselves a hole I will be rooting for them so that our win over them and our division come out looking better. I say that as if there is a chance that the ‘Noles could lose but ya never know, the Tigers lost to the Dukies on their home field once!

Maryland v Virginia
Once again another team that the Tigers will play versus one that they won’t see in the season. And again, the way Virginia has been playing this year, I don’t think that there really is any question that the Terps won’t run away with it. After a close loss to the Jackets, the Terps should be looking to keep their season in tact with a win in UVA. Of course the loss could be demoralizing and have the Terps in a slump. A loss for the Terps would separate them from the top of the division with 2 losses in conference, but I don’t see that happening so if anything as win would strengthen Clemson’s schedule when they play the Terps in the Valley later in the season.

Miami v Fla Intl
Seriously, let’s just get to the remaining good ACC game. There hasn’t been a game besides VT and BC this week that isn’t already decided on paper. Miami needs to get some good press and needs to light up FAI. No Coker hotseat heat here for once.

UNC v South Fla
I would say that this game is an ACC lock but UNC is on a downhill slide this year and USF usually has a good team rolling for them. From my developing stats page USF has #54 overall offense and #28 overall defense. This could be Buntings farewell song and could be a good bottom dweller game to watch a small school get some props by playing and possibly defeating an ACC team.

NC State v Wake Forest
This is the ACC game, besides VT/BC, that Clemson fans will have their eyes on this weekend. After the undefeated streak ending, 4th quarter meltdown against the Tigers, the Deacs head to Raleigh, the giant killing field, to face a hot Wolfpack team. NC State may be on a high after knocking BC and FSU down a notch over the previous weeks and may not see Wake as that much of a threat. I look for Wake to keep their smoke and mirror offense alive and take the pack down for their first ACC loss thus propelling them to the 1 loss familiarity that is the Atlantic division.

I’m a little pressed for time right now, so this will have to come in two installments. Before I go on to look at the next 4 upcoming games, let me quickly comment on last week’s game.

In previous forecasts, I had called for Clemson to win by 20. Obviously they did not win by 20, nor even the 16 required to cover the spread. They did, however, manage to play 3 horrible offensive quarters and walk away with a 10 point victory. Major credit goes to the Clemson defense for keeping it close for those quarters. They made the Wake offense look average at best. If we could go back and put in an average special teams performance ::coughs:: kickoffs ::coughs:: and the typical offense, the Tigers would have won by 30. The published news reports would have called Wake a pretender. Instead “they are for real.” I hope it gets taken to them in their next 6 games not because I harbor ill will toward the team but because I’m sick of seeing them get undeserved credit as some kind of really good team. If they win at NC State and UNC I’ll eat my words. And since rooting against teams based on media hype ::coughs:: Notre Dame ::coughs:: doesn’t ever work out for me, I’ll be keeping a bottle of A1 around because I’m sure those words will be tough as leather and taste like ass.

And let me add this about my forecasts. I’m including a forecast margin of victory and then a prediction. The forecast is what I think the Tigers are realisticaly capable of winning by. Anything less will be disappointing. It means that the team either underperformed or I gave too little credit to the opposition. The predictions will serve more as my gut instinct and what I would bet on if I were gambling.

And because I’m busy and we have a Thursday night game, I’ll get this published and do the rest tomorrow.
On to the Temple game. Read the rest of this entry »

Having titled the post “Weekend Review, Part Two:  Gaines Adams is a Badass Edition“, they did what they do best: write about college football in the most unprofessional, entertaining, and enjoyably painful manner possible.

To wit:  “Gaines completed the single greatest one-man nutpunching of a team in a single play…”

That sums it all up.

GAMETIMES ANNOUNCED!

Georgia Tech at Clemson, ESPN, 7:45 pm
Announcers-Mike Patrick (play-by-play); Todd Blackledge (analyst); Holly Rowe (sidelines).

WEEKLY AWARDS:

DEFENSIVE LINE
In earning the award for the second time this season Clemson inside linebacker Gaines Adams had perhaps his top game as a Clemson player in Saturday’s 27-17 win over previously unbeaten Wake Forest. The Greenwood, S.C., junior had eight tackles, including three tackles for loss, two of which were quarterback sacks against the Deacons. In addition, Adams forced two fumbles, recovering one that he returned 66 yards for a touchdown triggering a Tiger rally from a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit.

ROOKIE
In earning the award for the second time in three weeks, Clemson’s C.J. Spiller gained 104 yards rushing on just nine attempts and scored what proved to be the winning touchdown on a 72-yard run in the Tigers’ 27-17 victory over Wake Forest Saturday. Spiller’s 72-yard scoring jaunt came with 7:22 left and gave the Tigers a 24-17 lead. The run was the longest by a Clemson running back in 13 years and the longest touchdown run by a Clemson player since 2002. Spiller averaged 11.6 yards per attempt in recording his second consecutive 100-yard rushing game.

GAMEDAY?!

Gameday considers Clemson for Georgia Tech week. Clemson is one of three sites being considered as host for ESPN’s “College Gameday” preview show in two weeks, network spokesman Josh Krulewitz said Sunday night.

No. 12 Clemson plays No. 13 Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-0 ACC) at home Oct. 21 in a game that features contenders for the league’s division titles. Clemson plays winless Temple on Thursday; Georgia Tech has a bye this weekend.

Two other top-25 matchups are scheduled for that weekend: No. 15 Iowa at No. 4 Michigan and No. 6 Texas at No. 21 Nebraska.

A decision will be made next Sunday, Krulewitz said.

HISTORY MADE

Jan 03 1979 was the last time that FSU and Miami were both not in the top 25. AMAZING!

Sorry, had to have a punny title as I swore to a friend that SOMEONE would be using “roar” or “claw” in their Sunday morning headlines.

Anyway, As previously mentioned Broken and I headed to Winston-Salem to cheer on the Tigers in their second trip to that cursed hell of a stadium in as many years. The environment was cold, wet, and cold (did I mention cold?). Early wake up call for a noon game and a drive in from distant cities resulted in about 2 hours of tailgating. The parking lot was solid orange with Clemson tents, flags and fans as far as the eye could see. Our group expected about a 50% Clemson showing in the stadium and hoped for a drubbing that would have allowed us to leave in the third if we weren’t enjoying the revenge as much as possible. What happened was a return to Cardiac Cats football as reported below as well as in the quarter by quarter reporting at the Clemson Fanhouse.

First a view on Wake’s stadium and the environment.

From the start the music that was piped in was annoying, they obviously are compensating for their small fan base with the speaker system. Second, I am not sure if Wake is going bankrupt or what but I have never seen so much advertising and sponsorship in a game: Chick-Fil-A, Pap-Johns, Law Firms, Rental places, it was all there. We didn’t need commercials they had something announced on the field every 3rd down I think! The fans were quiet and some spoke to us in response to the game activity but amazingly the rsponse to everything that went on in terms of environment in the stadium was “It’s alot better in the basketball arena”. The Deacon on the Harley,the zombie nation and crowd jumping (yes they have had that horrible song alot longer than the Tigers who just intro’d it)…everything. The stadium is small but appealing to the eye. Not a rabid fanbase per-se but a reminder of Ivy-league football from back up north. Blankets on their hill and only one level stadium seating at max 50k people. The student section looked less in number than my high school graduating class of 500. Clemson had about 40% of the stadium in Orange.
Ok now on to the game.

The Good: Gaines Adams, C.J. Spiller, D-Line.

The O-Line gets some respect as well as they were going against the supposed #6 rushing offense in the nation and didn’t have that many pass protection issues. Gaines Adams performed what was probably the largest momentum changing play I have ever personally witnessed in college football. I am watching Sportscenter this morning and he is plastered all over the Pontiac Gamechanging performance. He is HUGE, and I never knew he had that speed. That play was all Gaines all the way, he hit the player, got the ball and ran it back. Wake deflated and couldn’t get it back together after that. C.J. Spiller, once again ESPN loving this kid with, I believe the words were “vapor trail” on his 72 yard run for 6. C.J. breaks a tackle and turns on the jets to burn the entire field. He also stepped in, solidly at that, for James Davis after he limped off a play earlier in the game. It is awesome to see C.J. getting his confidence and finally finding those holes. D-Line, well without them this game would have been miserable. They forced Wake to pass the ball more and were pestering skinner all day. They just get viscious with their backs against the wall and they showed up to get the Tigers back in the game.

The Bad: Secondary

I really want to put more in the bad but the ugly has yet to come. Secondary gave me fits all day. They were too aggressive and made attempts for the INT instead of the play a few times resulting in YAC. The fake that ended up with the QB as a receiver in the endzone was watched by Coleman who should have had better coverage on that in my mind. At some points in the game our group were wondering who else could get out there and make a difference. The secondary also made some big plays like Gaddis’ pick in the fourth so they weren’t ugly so they get a C in grades from me.
The Ugly:

SPECIAL TEAMS AGAIN

Add a little of Will Proctor and his odd habit of turnovers in the game and you wonder how the Tigers came out alive in this one. Special Teams has serious issues, like any Clemson fan didn’t know that. How does a former Groza award finalist SUCK so much? Squibb kicks, 90 yard returns and barely made field goals killed the teams momentum all day long. How do you expect to pressure a team when they know that they will have the ball on the 35 yard line after every kickoff? I read on Tigernet or Scout that Tommy has pretty much given up on Dean and had the walk-on kicker warming up and actually had to be convinced to give Dean a chance at the last FG attempt, which he made……luckily. Turn to the other side and are there magnets in the endzones for Wakes punter, the field position was REDICULOUS with an average of, I think, the 3 yard line on punts for that guy!!! Every time that ball would land on the 25 or 30 and just bounce it’s happy little ass down the field to the Clemson 1, 2 or 3 yard line. And Proctor, what the hell!! I know some of the picks were deflections but come on, 3 INT’s and a fumble against a team that you know can kill you on errors is unacceptable.
The Silver Lining:

With 21 points scored in 7:30 minutes this team has been given some confidence in what it can do when they are down. I am not saying that I ever want to see this happen again but it is a confidence booster to everyone in knowing that the game isn’t over until the 4th quarter ends. I am glad that we did not leave the game as stated after Proctors third INT or we would have missed one of the best comebacks in Tiger history. the second point is the rest of the Tigers schedule. All home games except for VT, all games in which the opponent has shown weaknesses against former teams which gives the Tigers game film to watch. With the fan base as rabid as it has been, the home field advantage should definitely be a plus.
Additional notes: Tiger Paws all over ESPN this morning with Gaines and C.J. getting most of the play. Sweet baby Lou put another sticker on the Tiger’s helmet for Gaines and the Tiger’s performance against Wake. I think ESPN likes torturing Lou with that whole put the sticker on the Tigers helmet thing. And what the heck is going on with top ten plays! Wake makes the #3 position with the option and QB reception in the endzone and Gaines and CJ get nothing! thats OK, the Tigers won and Gaines is a potential Pontiac Gamechanger.

Did I mention it was cold? Didi I mention that our group was about to leave in the third quarter? Glad we didn’t!

The fourth quarter was owned by the Tigers and their fanbase. The Deacs fans were filtering out faster than the shamecocks during the 63-17 disaster a few years back and left the teams to the Tigers wishes. The piped in noise and music got louder as they had to do SOMETHING to keep the Tigers from hearing each other. I seriously think that piped in noise should be illegal or limited. If you can’t get a loud fanbase then you don’t get the option of blaring noise every down for the oposing team. 2nd down they blared Rocky’s theme song and third down had this statc filled bell ringing that got annoying right off the bat. Their band was maybe 100 strong so no noise there and as mentioned before their stadium can’t hold that many people or noise by design so they compensated by installing huge speakers aimed onto the field so that they could “make” noise to disturb the opponents.

Two weeks ago I looked ahead to Clemson’s 4 upcoming opponents. At the time they were UNC, La Tech, Wake, and Temple. It seemed clear (and still seems) that Clemson should win all these games by 20 points or more.

UNC - check

La Tech - check

Wake, Temple - TBD

Although I didn’t post it, I meant to update the margins after the victory at UNC. To be more specific, I’d say a 30 point margin against La Tech would be reasonable while 20 and 40 points against Wake Forest and Temple, respectively, seem like reasonable bets.  The early line on the Clemson-Wake matchup is Clemson -15.

Let me just say that if we don’t make it past Wake, I’ll be on suicide watch and the rest of the season won’t matter.  But if, we get past Wake and then Temple (and that one’s not even in doubt, is it?) then we face Georgia Tech as our Homecoming opponent and Virginia Tech just 5 days later in Blacksburg.

Suddenly Georgia Tech looms much larger and Virginia Tech still looms large but a bit diminished. Read the rest of this entry »

Ok kids time for the stats to start coming out. This week I am looking at THE ACC.COM’s combined team stats for the season so far for the upcoming battle between #15 Clemson Tigers and the undefeated and team receiving the most votes out of the top 25; Wake Forest.

OFFENSE:

Offensively the two teams come out about even in the pass/rush distribution with Wake resorting to the run about 53% of the time and Clemson 54%. By the numbers though Clemson has put about 50% more on the board:

Wake Clemson
Passing 748 1023
Rushing 837 1203

Both teams seem to be solid ground teams as Wake has received 10 out of their 13 TD’s via foot. Clemson has resorted to the rush for 17 of their 25 TD’s. Due to the concentration of the rush let’s delve a bit more into this aspect of the game.

Wake and Clemson have attempted rushing the ball evenly at about 200 tries. Clemson tops off the average though with 5.8 yds/carry against Wake’s 4.2. The average yards per game is also awarded to Clemson with its 240 against Wake’s 167. Wake has lost 155 yards on the run while Clemson has been pretty positive in only contributing 64 yards in the loss column rushing. The numbers come out pretty even for the offensive rushing schemes so this may be a clock burner of a game if it comes down to the run as both teams seem rather comfortable and successful in their running game.
The other side of the O is the passing game. Clemson may have accessed the pass more often this season (131 att vs 96) but Wake is more accurate with a 66% completion rate in comparison to the Tigers 60%. The average pass is exactly the same at 7.8 yards along with the average yards at around 12. Clemson takes the yards per game by 50 though with 200.

Wake Clemson
Total Offense 1585 2226
Ave/Game 317 445

DEFENSE

Now we will talk about the Tiger pride, that bone crunching ball seeking beast that is the D. As with the O, the rush will be focused on first followed by the pass. As with the O these teams seem balanced defensively with a little nod to the Tigers on the rush Defense.

Wake has allowed 50 more yards (594 v 503) on the ground than the Tigers but both teams have held the opposing teams to an average of 2.2 yards per rush. The Deacs have had better success at stopping the run with 203 lost yards in comparison to the Tigers 157 but the Tigers have an average of 69 yards per game against them while the Deacs have 78.
In the air the two teams are very close with the average pass and yards after within a point of each other in each category. Wake has allowed 194 yards and Clemson 170 with 5 passes resulting in TD’s on the Deacs and only 1 on the Tigers. The Tiges, however, have been more dominant on the pass defense with a completion percentage of about 49% in comparison to Wake’s 55% completion allowance. Both teams have converted about half of their 3rd down conversions and Clemson is the only team to attempt 4th down conversions.

Wake Clemson
Total Defense Yds. 1365 1198
Ave/Game 273 239

Checking the total offense v the total defense Clemson caps this one when comparing their offensive potential versus the deac’s defensive performance. Also throw in that Clemson is the ACC lead as mentioned by Broken in his previous post. Wake may be ahead of the Tigers in defense but really have they played a team like BC of FSU talent?

Finally the potential downfall of the Tigers, the special teams. The reality is that, on paper, the teams are pretty balanced in terms of yards gained and allowed on special teams in both punts and kicks.

Additional notes:

Clemson has double the amount of fumbles as Wake and both teams have forced about the same amount of fumbles.

Clemson has 6 picks to Wakes 4 but Wake has the longer return average.

Both teams have amassed similar penalty yardage.

In the end both teams come in with great stats. Clemson has been an offensive powerhouse with an underrated defense holding up their end of the bargain while Wake has silently been slaying multi-conference opponents to get to an undefeated 5-0 record. By the numbers this should be a good game but that home field advantage always puts an edge towards the Deacs. Clemson may have to fight for the win but they will definitely not need motivation this week as the sting of the past three years sits heavy on the seniors. Look for this game to be a great football game with a two touchdown max difference in score (heck, if the Tigers keep their 50+ games this may be a great game!).

I see the Tigers finally pulling it out in Winston Salem with the support of the travelling Orange to the tune of 31-24.

How ya like dem apples!!

That is the Tigers point spread in this years home games.

Fla Atl: 54-6  UNC: 52-7   LaTech:51-0

To say that the Tigers have put the “Death” back in “Death Valley” is an understatement.  Now there are always the naysayers that state that Clemson has not had anyone of merit th house yet, but in comparison to how they have previously “played down to their opponents” I think it is fair to say that the Tigers have made their point.  Now for a short recap of the game.

3 running backs run for over 100 yards each.  If Reggie was feeling better he probably could have capped off 100 as well.  I am glad to see that the coaching staff is starting to recognize Demerick Chancellors potential for filling the third man spot when Reggie graduates.  I made sure to stay and watch him play but didn’t get to see him in the endzone.

Instead of Chancellor in the endzone I got to watch the previoulsy mentioned blocking freak, Alex Pearson, catch a TD for  the first Fullback TD in ages.  I am a big fan of the underdogs and underappreciated so Alex Pearson, Demerick Chancellor, Thomas Hunter and all those guys get alot of support from me in the stands when they show up.  I was thoroughly enjoying the third quarter with Chancellor running all over the place and Pearson scoring the TD.

I made my wife stay through the end of the third quarter so I could watch the second and third string guys play.  They don’t get that much respect and I want to cheer them on the same way that I cheer on the first stringers.  I was higly impressed, though, with the Tiger Faithful remaning in the stadium for the entire game.  I could see a fair amount of Orange in all areas and levels of the stadium.  I think that says something for the fans and their respect for the team and the hopes that they have.

Defense once again shows up HUGE!!  Man these guys are young and they are dominant, I just hope it doesn’t ge to their heads before we get through the season.  Crezdon Butler had a great game as did the rest of the young guys.  The Seniors on the D are doing a great job of leadership and developing the younger guys.  My only concern now is that Wake Forest and their deceptive offense will catch the younger guys off step.  Time for the seniors to step in and really get on the guys with game film and experience.

Wake Forest is now 5-0 (as seen on the Gnomes ACC Schedule!), sounds scary but they haven’t played anyone of interest.  Revenge is a dish best served cold, and there will be a ton of Orange to watch the main course served up this coming weekend.  I will be there and can’t wait to see the Tigers exact revenge on the thorn in their sides the past two years.

Georgia Tech upsets Virginia Tech.  First, thanks to GT for pushing the Tigers into the top 15.  Second, thanks to GT for making our home game with them THAT MUCH MORE IMPORTANT!!  That game is already picked up and if Clemson and Tech can get through their next opponents (Clemson:Wake, Temple/GT:Maryland) with wins, that game will be a definite highlight on the weekend.  I’m talking GAMEDAY caliber (ok maybe not but you never know).  The only bad thing is that Clemson goes off the Georgia Tech game to Blacksburg on a Thursday night.  Not much time to recover or prepare, but the depth has had more than enough time to establish itself and experience!!