A few weeks ago, after only 4 games, I agreed that a 7-5 regular season record seemed like the best estimate. Three games later and I haven’t changed my mind. While this year has some parallels to last season, the last 5 games look to be against stiffer competition than was faced last year, and it’s hard to believe we’ll do as well.
Through 7 games, it’s still difficult to get a handle on just what the competition consists of. Many teams have played 3, if not 4, out of conference games against nothing opponents that provide little insight into true composition of a team.
Let’s look at last season. Through our 7th game last year (on October 24th), our 5 remaining games were against:
Coastal Carolina (3-4, no quality wins)
Florida State (3-4, quality win against BYU)
NC State (3-4, a decent win against Pitt)
Virginia (3-4, a decent win against UNC)
South Carolina (6-2, a quality win over Ole Miss)
Through 7 games last season, I don’t think we were taking anything for granted, but the last 5 games didn’t look too bad, and 4 of those 5 were seemed very winnable.
This year, our remaining games are
Boston College (2-5, no quality wins)
NC State (5-2, a few decent wins)
Florida State (6-1, quality win over Miami)
Wake Forest (2-5, no quality wins)
South Carolina (5-2, quality win over ‘Bama)
Relative to last year, we’ve replaced Coastal Carolina and a bad Virginia team (that got their coach fired) with Boston College and Wake Forest, both of which are having a rough go of it this year. It’s not a completely even trade-off, but it looks close enough for now.
South Carolina actually looks slightly worse than they did last year based on record. In 2009 their 2 losses through 7 games were to Top-25 teams (at the time) Georgia and ‘Bama. This year their 2 losses are to ranked Auburn and unranked Kentucky.
The big differences are NC State and FSU. NC State is much improved; I don’t think there’s much room for argument there. 3-4 is way worse than 5-2. Two of the losses last year were to Duke and Wake. Five of FSU’s wins this season are against bad teams, but they’re wins. 6-1 versus 3-4? Forget about it.
It remains to be seen who will prevail in tonight’s NC State-FSU game, but both teams have looked competitive, supporting the view that both are improved over last season.
I think it’s difficult to say that Clemson has improved over last season. As such, it seems unlikely that we’ll finish 4-1 again.
Bottom line: A 3-2 finish is mildly optimistic and secures a final season record of 7-5.
PS – I’m too busy to edit. Sorry.