Stat Junky: Clemson v Maryland
As I am working 12 hour shifts this weekend I had to find something to occupy my time, so stat junky it was!! Due to the horrendous showing in Blacksburg last week, the stats have failed to prove the projections as viable arguing points but what the heck, they’re always a conversation point!
Maryland comes in to Death Valley after an emotional win over FSU and a potentially game tying FG block. From what I witnessed, they have a very balanced offense and Sam Hollenbach is a pretty accurate and efficient pass threat. The Tigers come off a bewildering loss in a hostile environment to start their home stretch of 3 games. The Terps will come into the Valley on a high but face one pissed off Tiger team who had their ACCCG hopes virtually smashed one week prior. I look for this one to be a close one in the first half and the second half a breakout for the Tigers. That is of course if they can get the running game going again.
Once again the rankings are recorded as (national,conference)
Overall Offense: CU(6,1) MD(58,6)
Clemson has played one game more than the Terps so the stats are slightly heavy on the Tigers side. Offensively Clemson has dropped from the number one spot in overall offense in the nation to #6 (Hawaii of all teams now sits atop the rankings). Maryland comes in at number 58 with a balanced offense at around 1100 yards rushing and 1200 passing for 297 yards and 24 points per game. Clemson has the heavy rush offense with 2155 yards on the ground and 1650 through the air for 423 yards and 38 points per game. Clemson has 7 more penalties recorded for 14 more yards than the Terps.
Passing Offense: CU(62,4) MD(100,11)
The passing offenses are, amazingly, very similar in numbers. Clemson may have accumulated more yards (1268 v 1650) but the percentages are exactly the same at 59.2%!! Clemson has 183 yards per game and 13 TD’s through the air while the Terps come in with 158 yards and 9 TD’s. QB pressure has resulted in 7 Clemson INT’s and 5 sacks while Maryland has allowed 6 INT’s and 15 sacks. I think Gaines Adams and company will be adding to that fact given such a high number in sacks.
Rushing Offense: CU(3,1) MD(68,4)
Rushing is, without question Clemsons strongpoint. They are 1000 yards greater than Maryland with 2155 and almost double in production per game with 239.4. 28 TD’s are the result of the dynamic duo while the Terps have run it in 11 times. Clemson averages 6 yards per carry while Maryland stands at about 4. With the air and ground attack both teams are pretty balanced at a pass/run average of about 24/37 or about a 60% favor to the run.
Overall Defense: CU(12,2) MD(58,10)
Virginia Tech took over on total D after the showing in Blacksburg last week unfortunately. Both teams are more succeptable to the air attack with Maryland allowing 170 more yards in fewer games than Clemson’s 1375. Maryland has also allowed 550 more yards than Clemson’s 800 yards on the ground. Clemson has forced 8 INT’s while the Terp’s have taken in 5. Maryland is allowing 8 ppg and 120 ypg more than Clemson as well.
Pass Defense: CU(28,4) MD(47,6)
Both teams are equal on paper in this category for the most part, allowing about 15 completions on 29 attempts per game. Maryland has allowed more yards through the air though with 1541 and 192 per game versus 1375 and 153 yards per game for Clemson. 5 and 9 are the amount of TD’s allowed by Clemson and Maryland respectively through the air. Coincidentally, in opposition to their own offenses both teams have given up more first downs via the air than the ground.
Rush Defense: CU(20,5) MD(94,11)
Clemson has had 40 more attempts thrown at them on the ground but allowed 550 less yards than Marylands 1354 yards this season. That averages out to Clemson allowing 2.5 yards per carry to Marylands 4.9. Maryland has had the opposing team in the endzone via the rush 11 times while the Tigers have only allowed it 7.
Returns: CU(46,8) MD(19,5)
This stat has to be mentioned as Clemson is still shaky on the special teams coverage (VT gave no opportunity to see what would happen after the seemingly decent coverage versus GT). Maryland is 19th in the nation….wow, with an average return of 10 yards on punts and 24 on kicks. Given Clemson has had half as many kick return opportunities as Maryland they are averaging 27 yards perkick return and 7.7 yards per punt.
From these stats it seems that Maryland is not holding it together too well as Clemson is one game further in the season and is beating Maryland in all aspects of the game. Once again if the running game opens up for the Tigers it will be lights out for the Terps early in the game. The only trouble I see is if Hollenbach and his offensive line somehow hold off Gaines and Antonio. This could be trouble as Clemson still seems to be searching for the perfect fit for safeties and corners. Hopefully the stats don’t lie on this one and Maryland maintains its pass/rush ratio on both sides of the ball. Either way, look for the Tigers to come in pissed and ready to tear some heads off. Hopefully the Tigers put it away early and allow Spence to open up the passing playbook to exercise Proctor’s abilities and get his confidence back.
My guess for Saturday (barring injuries): Clemson: 35 Maryland: 20
As I look at some of the game-by-game numbers, Maryland is starting to look a lot like Wake Forest. None of their stats are eye-popping, but they’re winning games. FSU won the yardage battle 458-223.
Offensively and defensively their averages are very close, with the only major differences being rush yards allowed and turnovers.
I’ll post more on my observations later.
Obviously when a team wins like Wake always seems to or Maryland did last night with half the yards and posession time of the opponent it is the turnovers that are the big factor. Clemson will have to play this Terp team like Wake and manage the ball very carefully. Look for Spence to be conservative with his calls in the air to posession receivers like Stuckey and Grisham if the ground game does not open up. An INT or fumble in this game to a team who has a pretty balanced offense is dangerous and the Tigers can not tempt fate with flash this weekend.